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Forecast Object standard overview

Authoritative files

This page is a reader-friendly summary. The normative contract lives in forecast_object_v1.1.json, forecast_object_v1.json, and compatibility-policy.md. Use those files for validators, compatibility reviews, and cross-repo changes.

The Forecast Object is the cross-repo contract for exchanging forecasts in XRTM. xrtm.org explains the shape in plain language; xrtm-org/governance defines the exact field names, versions, and migration rules.

Current canonical version​

Stable shape to keep in mind​

{
  "metadata": { "...": "..." },
  "question": { "...": "..." },
  "prediction": { "...": "..." }
}
  • metadata carries forecast identity plus created_at and snapshot_time.
  • question carries the forecast target and optional resolution_criteria.
  • prediction carries the canonical probability, reasoning trace, and optional uncertainty or calibration payloads.

Important v1.1 expectations​

  • prediction.probability is the canonical probability field.
  • prediction.reasoning_trace is the canonical standards-facing trace shape.
  • prediction.distribution is the preferred uncertainty surface when a parametric distribution is available.
  • prediction.confidence_interval remains a deprecated compatibility field during the v1.x window.
  • Ground-truth outcomes stay out of the Forecast Object and belong to evaluation-owned data.

How changes should flow​

  1. Propose or update the schema in xrtm-org/governance.
  2. Check the compatibility policy before renaming or removing fields.
  3. Update package implementations and examples in the owning repos.
  4. Refresh this site only after the authoritative change is accepted.